Thursday MLB Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Thursday.

We saw a low-scoring contest between these two teams last night but I look for a different story to unfold in Thursday's series-finale. Each of the first two games of this series have gone to extra innings and both clubs might need to patch things together in the later innings with closer Emmanuel Clase having worked the last two nights for the Guardians and Ryan Pressly having done the same for the Astros. The starting pitching matchup leaves a lot to be desired with Logan Allen taking the ball for Cleveland and rookie Spencer Arrighetti going for Houston. Note that Allen owns a 5.12 FIP and 1.40 WHIP in six starts this season. Current Astros have gone 7-for-16 off of the left-hander with four of those hits going for extra bases. Note that Houston checks in ranked best in the majors in home OPS this season and eighth in OPS vs. left-handers. Arrighetti remains in the Astros starting rotation out of necessity only due to a number of key injuries. He has logged a 3.79 FIP and 2.34 WHIP in three big league starts this season. The Guardians rank inside baseball's top-10 in OPS in night games and a respectable 13th in road OPS. The Astros bullpen entered last night's action sporting a 4.90 ERA and 1.42 WHIP with only two saves converted and seven blown this season. Take the over.

My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and New York at 1:10 pm et on Thursday.

This series has been as low-scoring as expected and I look for more of the same in Thursday's series-finale in Queens. Rookie Ben Brown will get the start for Chicago. He's impressed so far, logging a 3.14 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in three big league starts. He draws a favorable matchup here with the Mets ranking 26th in the majors in home OPS and 25th in OPS over the last seven days. Adrian Houser will counter for New York. The Mets haven't hesitated to lift him from games early should he struggle. I certainly don't think he's as bad as he's shown in his last two outings. Current Cubs hitters are 12-for-50 off off Houser with only two extra-base hits. Of note, Ian Happ has worn him out going 4-for-11 with four RBI (the only RBI the current Cubs roster have racked up against him). Again, we're talking about minimal damage with Happ recording the Cubs only two extra-base hits off of Houser (both doubles). The Cubs check in ranked 29th in baseball in OPS over the last seven days and 25th in road OPS this season. Keep in mind, the Mets sport one of baseball's best bullpens so far this season, entering last night's action with a collective 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Take the under (8*).

Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over Toronto at 8 pm et on Thursday.

The Bruins let the Maple Leafs off the hook in Game 5 of this series in Boston, failing to clinch their spot in the second round. They'll get another opportunity to do so on Thursday and I look for them to take full advantage this time around. Note that Boston is 28-10 (+14.4 net games) in its last 38 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent by one goal including a 12-4 (+6.6 net games) record in that situation this season. The Bruins are also 16-5 (+8.2 net games) when coming off a home loss by a single goal including a 6-3 (+0.8 net games) mark this season. Meanwhile, Toronto staved off elimination on Tuesday but is still a long-term 12-13 (-2.1 net games) when facing elimination in a playoff series. Take Boston (10*).

My selection is on New York plus the points over Philadelphia at 9 pm et on Thursday.

The Knicks let the 76ers off the hook in Game 5 of this series on Tuesday. I look for them to finish the job on Thursday, however, as the scene shifts to Philadelphia for Game 6. Note that New York is 5-3 SU in its last game played in the City of Brotherly Love. The Knicks are also 24-19 ATS when coming off an upset loss over the last three seasons including an 8-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. In fact, they're 22-11 ATS when coming off a loss of any kind this season including 9-2 ATS when that defeat came by six points or less, as is the case here. Philadelphia checks in 9-17 ATS in its last 26 games following an upset win on the road including a 2-5 ATS mark this season. The 76ers are a long-term 34-49 ATS when coming off an upset win over a divisional foe including 0-2 ATS in that situation this season. Take New York (8*).

Thursday NBA Free play. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Milwaukee at 6:30 pm et on Thursday.

We won with the Bucks in Game 5 of this series as they staved off elimination with a blowout victory at home. I expect a much different story to unfold on Thursday as the scene shifts back to Indiana for Game 6. Note that Milwaukee is 15-32 ATS in its last 47 games as a road underdog including a 4-10 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're also a long-term 58-68 ATS when coming off an ATS victory including a 16-20 ATS record this season. Meanwhile, Indiana checks in 38-26 ATS in its last 64 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 16-8 ATS mark in that spot this season. Finally, the Pacers are 28-15 ATS in their last 43 games following an upset loss including a 13-5 ATS record this season. Take Indiana.

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 9 pm et on Thursday.

This series has tightened up considerably in the last two games with just 189 and 194 points scored in regulation time (Game 5 went 'over' the total thanks to overtime). That's about what we would expect from two familiar, physical teams. Note that the 'under' is 18-13 in the Knicks last 31 games following an upset loss at home including a 5-1 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 62-54 with New York seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons including a 21-15 record this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 8-4 with the 76ers playing at home with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points over the last three seasons, which is the case here at the time of writing, including a 3-2 mark in that spot this season. Take the under (10*).